US-Instuments to Enforce Truce and Ceasefire in Sudan

Leveraging Economic and Institutional Instruments to

Enforce Truce and Ceasefire in Sudan

by:
Professor Mekki Medani El Shibly
Executive Director, Cognizance Centre for Strategic Studies (CCSS)

Date: November 2025

Executive Summary

This Concept Note outlines a comprehensive framework for the Quartet to enforce and sustain a truce–ceasefire process in Sudan by addressing two core drivers of war:

1. The war economy, anchored in illicit gold, livestock, crops, and fuel trade networks.
2. The mutual fear of prosecution among military actors (Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces).

To counter these dynamics, the Quartet can operationalize a Sudan Resource Trade Oversight Committee (S-RTOC) that integrates economic leverage, monitoring, and enforcement. The S-RTOC will serve as a joint mechanism to regulate trade in gold and other critical exports, promote transparency, and align both parties with the Quartet’s peace roadmap.

The Note provides:

• Institutional design and operating principles for S-RTOC.
• Economic oversight mechanisms, including escrow arrangements and certified exporter systems.
• A defined role for the Central Bank of Sudan (CBOS).
• Timelines, monitoring protocols, and accountability structures.

Ultimately, the approach transforms Sudan’s war economy into a compliance economy, linking access to markets, liquidity, and aid to verified progress toward peace.

1. Background and Rationale

The continuation of Sudan’s conflict rests heavily on two interlocking enablers:

1. Local and regional war economies, particularly gold mining and livestock exports.
2. Elite impunity, sustained by mutual fears of prosecution.

Previous ceasefire efforts failed because they treated these issues as peripheral. The Quartet’s leverage, especially through its control over trade routes, banking channels, and political legitimacy, can now be converted into an enforcement system linking peace to economic access.

The proposed Sudan Resource Trade Oversight Committee (S-RTOC) provides the institutional backbone for this shift.

2. Objectives

1. Enforce compliance with truce–ceasefire agreements through economic and regulatory leverage.
2. Curb the financing of hostilities through illicit gold and resource trades.
3. Create a transparent, monitored trade system linking Sudanese exports to peace milestones.
4. Support the re-establishment of legitimate state financial institutions, particularly the Central Bank of Sudan.
5. Facilitate Quartet coordination and public accountability for peace-linked trade.

3. Institutional Design: Sudan Resource Trade Oversight Committee (S-RTOC)

Composition:

• Quartet Representatives (U.S., Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE).
• African Union and UNDP (technical partners).
• Central Bank of Sudan (CBOS) and Ministry of Minerals.
• National Economic and Compliance Board (NECB): Composed of Sudanese technocrats, the Central Bank of Sudan (CBOS), and private-sector monitors.
• Civilian Transition Task Force (CTTF): Links the ceasefire process with institutional reconstruction.
• Sudanese Independent Think Tanks and Civil Society Experts, serving as a Technical Advisory Group (TAG) for local legitimacy, national ownership, analysis, and monitoring.

Functions:

• Oversight of gold, livestock, and fuel export flows.
• Certification of exporters and inspection of trade routes.
• Coordination of compliance-linked economic incentives.
• Public transparency interface (quarterly reporting).

Reporting Lines:

The NECB reports to S-RTOC; S-RTOC reports quarterly to the Quartet Secretariat. Independent think tanks feed data directly to both the S-RTOC and CTTF.

4. Mechanisms of Implementation

1. Gold Export Oversight:
   • All certified gold exports must pass through verified exporters listed in the Certified Exporter Registry (CER).
   • The CBOS holds escrow accounts in which export proceeds are deposited before disbursement.
   • The S-RTOC reviews these flows quarterly, reporting to the Quartet.
2. Foreign Exchange Monitoring:
   • FX transactions linked to gold, fuel, and livestock are reported directly to the S-RTOC by CBOS.
   • Quarterly performance dashboards assess compliance by region and exporter.
3. Technical Audits and Civilian Oversight:
   • Sudanese think tanks and academic institutions conduct independent audits.
   • Their reports are annexed to Quartet briefings, ensuring local data ownership.
4. Sequenced Incentives:
   • SAF and RSF compliance unlocks access to donor-financed liquidity facilities.
   • Non-compliance triggers suspension of export privileges and sanctions on associated entities.

5. Economic Leverage and Trade Oversight Mechanism

Given that gold primarily flows to the UAE and livestock and agricultural exports to Egypt, both Quartet members have critical leverage.

However, their commercial interests must be aligned with peace enforcement on a win-win basis.

Proposed Measures:

1. Quartet Joint Verification Mechanism:
   • Egypt and the UAE commit to importing only S-RTOC-certified Sudanese exports.
   • Any non-certified shipments are denied entry or face customs suspension.
2. Cross-Border Monitoring Taskforce:
   • Deployed at Port Sudan, Argeen (Egypt), and the UAE gold import channels.
   • Operated jointly by AU, UNDP, and local observers.
3. Foreign Exchange Settlement Protocol:
   • Export proceeds enter Sudan via CBOS-supervised escrow accounts.
   • Disbursements to exporters are conditional on verified compliance.
4. Incentive Alignment:
   • Egypt and the UAE benefit from legal, traceable trade.
   • SAF and RSF gain liquidity and recognition only through verified compliance.
5. Transparency Interface:
   • Monthly public dashboards display certified exporters and trade data.
   • Creates public confidence and donor visibility.

Reinforcing the Win–Win Principle:

By institutionalising multilateral verification, digital traceability, independent audits, and Sudanese civil oversight, the Quartet can ensure that Egypt and the UAE operate as cooperative guarantors, rather than unilateral beneficiaries, of Sudan’s resource trade framework.
These safeguards reinforce the win–win principle, uphold transparency, and sustain confidence in the broader ceasefire-linked reconstruction process.

6. The Role of the Central Bank of Sudan (CBOS)

The CBOS is the institutional anchor of the S-RTOC architecture.
Despite recent leadership instability and political interference, its rehabilitation is essential.

Core Responsibilities:

1. Manage all foreign exchange inflows from certified exports via escrow accounts.
2. Ensure traceability and auditability of gold and commodity transactions.
3. Issue monthly financial integrity reports to the Quartet and Ministry of Finance.
4. Implement a compliance charter prohibiting discretionary licensing or export permissions.
5. Establish a Joint Verification Desk with UNDP and the Ministry of Minerals.

To safeguard CBOS's independence:

• The Quartet should appoint two technical advisers (seconded via UNDP).
• Sudanese think tanks monitor CBOS reforms and report publicly on its performance.

7. Monitoring, Reporting, and Evaluation

• Quarterly Quartet Reviews assess trade transparency, ceasefire compliance, and sanctions enforcement.
• Local Think Tank Reports provide independent ground verification.
• UNDP Dashboard compiles and publishes key performance indicators (KPIs).

Key Indicators:

• Volume of certified exports.
• Escrow compliance rate.
• Reduction in illicit gold smuggling.
• Verified ceasefire adherence by SAF and RSF.

8. Risk Analysis and Mitigation

Risks:

1. Collusion between export companies and political elites.
2. Resistance from Islamist networks embedded in state agencies.
3. Sabotage by actors and warlords benefiting from shadow economy operations.

Mitigation:

• Regular Quartet-AU oversight missions.
• Targeted sanctions on non-compliant companies.
• Public disclosure of certification data.
• Support to independent media and civil watchdogs.

9. Linkage to the Truce–Ceasefire Process

The S-RTOC functions as both an economic enforcement tool and a confidence-building mechanism.
It incentivizes both the SAF and RSF to commit to ceasefire compliance by tying financial access to verified peace behavior.

This linkage ensures that:

• Military actors are gradually excluded from economic and political decision-making.
• Civilian institutions gradually regain control over trade and fiscal governance.
• The Quartet maintains measurable leverage to ensure compliance throughout the transition.

10. Conclusion

The Sudan Resource Trade Oversight Committee (S-RTOC) represents an innovative blend of diplomacy, economic governance, national ownership, and conflict resolution.

By combining enforcement with transparency and Sudanese ownership, it offers a sustainable pathway from war economy to peace economy.

The success of this mechanism depends on Quartet coherence, Sudanese institutional participation, and sustained technical and financial support.

ANNEXES

Annex I: Technical Oversight and Implementation Framework

Structure and Reporting Flow:

1. Quartet Secretariat (Washington): Receives and consolidates quarterly reports.
2. S-RTOC Secretariat (Khartoum/Port Sudan): Operates verification and certification systems.
3. CBOS and Ministry of Minerals: Prepare joint export and FX reports.
4. Certified Exporter Registry (CER): Maintains exporter compliance database.
5. Independent Think Tanks: Submit civil verification reports.
6. UNDP: Publishes integrated compliance dashboards.

Hierarchical and functional relationships of the Sudan Resource Trade Oversight Committee (S-RTOC)

Functional and Hierarchical Operation of

Sudan Resource Trade Oversight Committee (S-RTOC)

Timeline (Indicative):

Compliance and Monitoring

• Joint Monitoring and Verification Teams (JMVTs): Include military observers, civilian representatives, and Quartet liaison officers.
• Compliance Reports: Submitted to the Quartet Secretariat and publicly summarized through Sudanese think tanks as follows:
• Monthly exporter data uploads.
• Quarterly S-RTOC validation reports.
• Annual public performance audit.
• Incentive Framework: Linked to measurable milestones and transparent audit trails.

Annex II: Institutional Coordination Narrative

The institutional architecture of the S-RTOC is a multi-layered accountability system connecting the Quartet’s diplomatic leverage with Sudan’s technical and financial oversight bodies.

Flow of Authority:

• The Quartet provides top-level strategic guidance, diplomatic legitimacy, and sanctioning authority.
• The S-RTOC acts as the operational coordination hub, linking the Quartet with Sudanese institutions.
• The CBOS and Ministry of Minerals serve as implementing agencies.
• The Certified Exporter Registry (CER) manages the operational interface with the private sector.
• Sudanese Independent Think Tanks act as the integrity backbone, verifying compliance and publishing public reports.

This flow ensures that economic oversight reinforces political stabilization, while Sudanese technical actors retain ownership of implementation and monitoring.

Annex III: Institutional Flow of Oversight and Accountability in Sudan’s Gold Export Mechanism (under S-RTOC)