The Hard Truth-Politicians Are Squandering Sudanese's Last Chance
The Hard Truth: Politicians Are Squandering Sudanese's Last Chance
By Professor Mekki El Shibly
Executive Director, Cognisance Centre for Strategic Studies
Keep Your Battles Over Power Away from SAF and RSF Negotiations for Truce and Ceasefire
Sudan’s war rages on, displacing millions and tearing the social fabric apart. Into this bleak landscape, the Quartet, the United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, has introduced a roadmap: first, a humanitarian truce, then a ceasefire, and finally, a civilian-led transition. The sequence is logical, but instead of uniting behind this last opportunity to rescue the Sudanese people from the ravages of war between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), some of the divided political factions have united to ignite a war of statements against the Quartet initiative and wage battles against each other to thwart the African Union's initiative to facilitate dialogue between them.
Although some of the statements about the Quartet are not unfounded, the right approach is not to devalue its roadmap or try to abort it while it's still in its early stages, risking it facing the same fate as previous initiatives since the outbreak of the war. Instead, the devastation caused by the war that all Sudanese have suffered requires taking advantage of the opportunity provided by the Quartet, building on it, and bringing politicians together so they can step up to lead once the guns fall silent.
At this critical juncture, the very least responsibility demands of political actors is to stop engaging with the Quartet in fragmented, discordant voices. Instead of releasing scattered statements from individual factions, they should articulate their positions from a unified platform, one that commands both respect and credibility. This is not the moment to expend energy on piecing together minor groups. Rather, it is the time for the major political blocs to stand together and confront the immense challenges and grave dangers facing the Sudanese people.
Towards an Objective Dialogue on Complaints Directed at the Quartet
The Complaint: Imposed by Foreigners
The Quartet did not appear out of thin air, nor does it operate in a vacuum. It was formed in response to Sudan’s deepening crisis, precisely because the country’s local players have failed to provide a credible national mechanism for dialogue and conflict resolution. While external actors cannot and should not replace Sudanese ownership of the process, dismissing the Quartet as a foreign imposition is a convenient excuse to avoid accountability. If Sudan’s political and military elites genuinely wish to assert sovereignty, the path lies not in rejecting international mediation, but in uniting around a coherent civilian-led platform capable of engaging with the Quartet on equal footing.
The Complaint: No Implementation Mechanism
Critics say the Quartet statement lacks solid mechanisms for implementation. They are correct, but that is hardly fatal. No single communiqué can outline a comprehensive peace architecture. Implementation mechanisms must come through consultations with actors beyond the Quartet, especially the United Nations, the African Union, and the European Union, which is already underway. These bodies provide legitimacy, technical capacity, and regional anchoring. The roadmap is an invitation to that next phase, not the final blueprint.
The Complaint: Civilians Were Excluded
Yes, the Quartet consulted the generals but not the civilians. But let’s be honest: the truce and ceasefire are matters for those holding weapons, not for those issuing statements. Bringing divided civilians into these early negotiations would only inject their unresolved quarrels into a fragile process, likely derailing it before it starts. Civilians will have their moment, and it will be decisive, once the guns are silenced. The responsibility of the armed factions is to stop shooting; the responsibility of the civilians is to unite first and be ready to govern.
The Complaint: Civilian Ownership Is Vague
Here, the critics touch on something real. Civilian ownership of the transition is indispensable. But ownership cannot be granted from abroad; it must be claimed from within. The Quartet cannot dictate who speaks for Sudanese civilians. Rather, it is extracted from within through independent national representation, centered on independent think tanks and centers of excellence, that are involved in power struggles. If the politicians continue to indulge in secondary disputes and factional manoeuvring, they will squander the opening the roadmap provides. Worse, they risk repeating the failures of the so-called Rotana process, when spoilers used division as their backdoor back into politics.
Divided Politicians Risk Playing the Role of Spoilers
The blunt reality is that fragmented politicians risk playing the same role as spoilers. Their competing statements, their attacks on the Quartet, and their endless battles against each other undermine the very process they claim to support. Evidence suggests that politician infighting could abort the Quartet roadmap before it even commences. The responses to October Addis Ababa dialogue convened by the African Union is a clear example: Somoud, Tasis, party factions, and alliances are fighting bitterly over who would attend, weakening the credibility of the entire exercise.
This does not mean depriving civilians of their future role. On the contrary, it means protecting their ability to play it effectively. For now, the best service they can offer the suffering Sudanese people is to unite, not to fight for seats of power before the war is even over.
The Hard Truth
The Quartet has done what outsiders can: create space for peace by isolating the generals and sanctioning the Islamists who fuel this war. But no external actor can substitute for civilian unity. If the democratic forces cannot organise around broad minimum common denominators, ending the war, protecting civilians, and restarting a credible democratic transition, they will hand the future of Sudan back to the very spoilers they denounce.
Quartet Success Requires Harmonised Roles of All Actors
Political Actors
- Establish a unified umbrella mechanism for communication and decision-making.
- Refrain from issuing individual or factional statements that undermine collective leverage.
- Develop a minimum common platform focused on ending the war, protecting civilians, and advancing a democratic transition.
Quartet
- Endorse the roadmap as a transitional framework, while delegating implementation mechanism design to inclusive consultations with the UN, AU, EU, and IGAD.
- Maintain pressure on spoilers through sanctions and diplomatic isolation.
International and Regional Institutions
- Support monitoring and enforcement of the ceasefire mechanism.
- Provide technical, financial, and political assistance for a civilian-led transition once hostilities end.
- Facilitate structured dialogue among civilian actors, emphasising inclusivity and representation without undermining the December Revolution objectives.
The Way Forward
Politicians must recognise that sequencing matters. The truce and ceasefire will not involve them directly, but the day after, the spotlight will shift. If by then they remain fractured, Sudan risks falling into yet another cycle of military domination and Islamist resurgence. But if they are united, prepared with a credible civilian platform, and ready to work with the Quartet, the AU, IGAD, and the UN, then Sudan can begin to climb out of the abyss.
Bottom line: the criticisms of the Quartet statement are not without truth. But they miss the bigger picture: this roadmap is not the end, it is the beginning. The challenge for Sudanese politicians is not to nitpick its imperfections, but to unite and prepare themselves to lead once the opportunity arrives. The guns must first go silent. Then, and only then, will politicians have their moment. Whether they rise to it or squander it will determine Sudan’s fate.